My father, a newly converted soccer fan, asked for a preview of today’s match — essentially what to look for and what to know. Here’s what I wrote up for him.
Both teams are evenly matched and play a version of the Dutch-invented style known as total football. The tenets of total football hold that, as any player moves out of position another can move into his position and take his spot. This fluidity requires players to have great technical ability and fitness. It also means that teams who play total fotball have a high percentage of possession and are generally attack-oriented teams.
You can think of total football in opposition to the Italian style, which is known as catenaccio, meaning “door-bolt” which emphasizes strong defense and counter attacks.
Total football was invented by the Dutch and imported to Spain by Dutch legend Johan Cruyff in the 1970s. It has been practiced ever since – in one form or another – by Spanish side Barcelona, which currently dominates the Spanish football landscape. Seven of the players used to beat Germany either currently ply for Barcelona, or had spent time playing for the club or were developed in its youth system.
There is also a high degree of cross-over between the Dutch team and Spanish club football, with several Dutch players having spent time playing for top Spanish clubs.
Look for both of these teams to try to possess the ball for long periods of time (and for Spain to be more successful in the endeavor) and probe for areas of weakness in the other side. I expect both teams to try to control the game in the first 2o minutes, playing probing football rather than going on the attack. Neither team will want to give up an early goal, so I doubt they will be looking to stretch the field on the attack early. Between the 25th and 30th minutes, I’d expect to see both teams launching attacks, with the Dutch being a bit more aggressive in this point.
Looking back at the scores from both squads throughout the World Cup, only the Dutch have scored more than two goals in any match (their 3-2 win over Uruguay in the semi finals) and neither team has won by more than two goals. Spain only managed a 2-0 win over lowly Honduras
This isn’t a reflection on their skill as much as it is a reflection on their style of play, which revolves around controlling the ball at midfield and stringing together passes, rather than looking for quick strikes at the goal.
You’ll see lots of beautiful football today, with great passing and possession, but probably little scoring – I’d expect a tight match, somewhere in the 2-1, 1-0 range. I don’t expect either team to sit back and wait for the match to go into extra time, however. They both have their share of older players and won’t want the match coming down to the chance of extra time and penalty kicks.
If either team has a weakness, it’s in the central defense of both sides. The Central defenders for Spain are old (Carlos Puyol) and prone to mistakes (Gerard Pique), but are also known for their heart and heroics and both are able to score on set pieces. It was the long-haired Puyol who scored Spain’s goal against Germany on s corner kick. Flying in next to him looking for the same ball was Pique.
The Dutch defense doesn’t have the same obvious weaknesses, but has given up goals up the middle.
The Dutch are a more complete team, with a more potent attack. Dirk Kuyt, Wesley Sneijder, and Arjen Robben have been proven goal scorers throughout the tournament. Robin Van Persie is also a talented striker.
Spain has had real difficulty finding goals outside of forward David Villa and their star forward Fernando Torres, who had an incredible club season, has struggled in the World Cup. But Spain’s midfielders – Xavi, Sergio Busquets and Xabi Alonso are superior to their Dutch counterparts in their ability to hold the ball and string together passes. It will be interesting to see if Spain starts the young Pedro at forward in place of Torres (as they did against Germany). In that game, Pedro brought some freshness to the attack that Spain has been missing.
Both sides have solid goalkeepers and this position shouldn’t factor into the match.
So, my prediction: 2-1 to the Dutch, with goals by Sneijder, Van Persie and — going out on a limb — Pedro.
What’s your prediction?